October 05, 2011 was an eventful day for Apple as they lost their iconic CEO, Steve Jobs.
Here is a reaction from one analyst:
“Without Jobs, Apple’s rivals now have some time to step up and majors such as Google, Samsung, Microsoft and Facebook will try to fill the gap,”
Shinyoung Securities analyst Lee Seung-woo told Reuters.
It has been over 6 years and Apple has just gone from strength to strength more than doubling their revenue from USD 108 Bn for 2011 to USD 228 Bn last year and all the attempts from the competition like Samsung and google has done nothing to dent its brand image and positioning amongst its loyal customers.
A death is an event so is a wedding
However often the event becomes the objective and not the harbinger of hope or celebration of a life?
Why Does An Event Engulf our Existence?
Look at participants in a wedding, funeral, or a vacation trip.
It seems that the conduct of this wedding, funeral or trip will be the defining moments for them and there will be no tomorrow-“life will come to an end”
That’s why the end of an event exhausts the participants as they invest so much in the preparation that, by the end, they are left with disappointment of the end irrespective of how well the event went.
The event, the frenzy that it creates in the participants and the deep sense of happiness or disappointment that it leaves behind makes it seem like “THE END”.
The Endless Wait for the Event
We often meet those who are obsessed with an upcoming event.
In-fact there are concerted efforts made often by vested interests to make the audience believes that this is the most important event of their lives and life will never be the same again;
Lets’ look at some examples:
- The most important budget ever;
- State Elections-make or break for opposition and the ruling party;
- If You don’t select X, Y or Z, India will lose everything and go back 60 years
This is what great marketing is all about, play up the emotions, get the audience hooked, get your result or make your money and plan another trip for the audience:
What’s the Actual Impact?
Lets’ look at some numbers with respect to 5-year impact on stock markets post an election:
| Election Month & Year | On Election Day-Sensex Value | Return Difference Between 1 Election to Next (%) | Type of Govt |
| Oct-99 | 4444.56 | 0 | Coalition |
| May-04 | 4759.62 | 7.09% | Coalition |
| May-09 | 14625.25 | 207.28% | Coalition |
| May-14 | 24217.24 | 65.59% | Single-party majority |
| Jan-19 | 36256.29 | 49.71% | ?? |
So generally speaking over a 5-year period the markets seem to go up rather than go down irrespective of the type of govt whether coalition or single-party.
In-fact a weak coalition during 2004-2009 produced the best stock market returns.
That’s shocking
Not really because markets represent businesses and businesses get impacted by policy of the govt. (only one of the many factors that impact them) along with competition; global business scenario, ease of funding, innovation etc., that go beyond who is sitting in Delhi.
So what should you do?
- Don’t sit on the sidelines-whether you invest Lump-sum or stagger your investment, till the time your basic strategy is in place, in the long-run the market always rewards you
- Stick to your Asset Allocation
- Buy Quality businesses and invest with quality Fund Managers
Stay the course?
Irreverentinvestor.com 