Of Creepy, Crawley Change

Pace of change is often discussed at length and so many people would want it to happen even faster that how fast things are already moving.

However the “real change” can often go undetected as it is so much under the surface.

Surface of the earth is broken into 7 large and several small moving plates.

Each plate being 50 miles thick and moving anywhere between ½ inch to several inches per year.

Now think about it, if a plate moves only ½ inch per year, that means it moves:

5” in 10 years

50” inches in 100 years,

500” in 1000 years.

It will take 100 Million years to move 800 miles

That’s how the current structure of the earth was shaped.

The Cretaceous period began 145.0 million years ago and ended 66 million years ago.

Beginning of the cretaceous period, earth was divided into 2 supercontinents-

  • Gondwana in the south with South America, Africa, Arabian Peninsula, Middle East, India, Australia, Antarctica and several other smaller masses part of it and
  • Laurasia in the North with North America, Eurasia and Greenland part of it.

Africa had split from South America, the last land connection being between Brazil and Nigeria.

In Indian Ocean, Africa and Madagascar separated from India, Australia and Antarctica in late Jurassic to cretaceous period.

India began its journey northward, which culminated in a later collision with Asia during the Cenozoic era.

Most of western Europe, Eastern Australia, parts of Africa, South America, India, Madagascar, Borneo, and other areas that are now land were entirely covered with water.

All these changes in the way the earth is structured right now happened over millions of years.

Generations of living beings from the era might not even have felt the changes that was the pace of change.

Even while being aware of the fact, we can’t feel or relate to the fact that the earth’s tectonic plates are moving continuously even though at a very slow pace.

Change keeps moving your way

Change is happening all-round but a lot of times very difficult to detect.

CRISPR system first discovered in early 2010’s got its place in the sun during the covid pandemic leading to the mRNA vaccine.

It was there, tech was available but it took years to finally put it to application.

That doesn’t mean nothing was happening around it, only thing it tells you that steps that lead to meaning for larger populace can go undetected or recognized for a long time.

Investing is Hard

One of the factors that makes investing so hard is “What’s obvious” is usually priced in very quickly.

It’s the slow moving change and inability to recognize and persist with it as it happens that can not only test your patience but frustrate you at times when you are proven wrong.

The entire paradigm of investing changed over the last 20 years as company valuations shifted from tangibles (plant, machinery, buildings) to intangibles (human capital, Innovation, tech, R&D).

Apply some short-cuts?

Everyone who is a serious investor knows that there are no short-cuts.

So What’s the long-cut: frankly it’s tough for those whose day job is not investing.

But still there are a few things that you can do:

  • Read-not about investing but about trends; read medicine journals; chemical discoveries; new usage;

Remember– It was the Scientists working for Danisco, a dairy food production company, were looking for a way to protect their yogurt bacteria, Streptococcus thermophiles, from virus attacks. Danisco’s scientists confirmed that the CRISPR system was involved in anti-virus defence of the yogurt bacteria. But how it worked was not learned until a few years later.

  • Be Inquisitive-As you look at your favourite brands; think about what’s new happening in those sectors and how it’s get adapted and maybe there is a new investing idea lurking there
  • As you look for Managers, look for ones who are not just benchmark huggers but the ones who are recognizing trends early; Align with them closely;
  • Ask you advisors and managers not about investing but what is it that they do with their team, what do they read and what are their objectives

Sounds tough-yes, cause it is.

The idea is not to get demotivated but become conscious and that might help you make better decision.

Happy Investing-Stay the Course.

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