The Obvious

The myth of Hades and Persephone is associated with the coming of Spring and Winter: When Persephone comes to the Earth, it’s springtime. When she descends to Hades, it is winter.

Hades, God of Underworld kidnapped Persephone.

Persephone’s mother Demter, Goddess of Earth, negotiated her release on the condition that 6 months in a year Persephone will go and live with Hades.

So when Persephone goes to the underworld, as a result of Demeter’s sadness the earth experiences winter and when she comes out, we get spring.

As David Deutsche explains in his book “beginning of infinity”, if Greeks had known that the exact same time when they are experiencing winter, Australia is experiencing summers, they would have realized that there is something wrong with this myth.

The Quest for Explanation

As human beings we have a constant need for explanation.

Even if that means attributing the events to forces of nature or God.

There is a misconception that an explanation coming from an authority figure must be genuine.

However, most people out there have a pre-conceived notion and when that gets explained, it becomes their truth.

Recently a Wealth Advisor upon failure to explain the prevailing situation, made the following comment:

“If the Chairman of largest housing finance company is saying this, I would rather believe him”.

And I was supposed to be content with this explanation.

Just as in the case of Hades and Persphone, if the Greek had realized that earth is on the move and hence when one side is facing the sun, there is spring and when it moves to the other side, there is winter, similarly is daily life almost everything can be either tested for explanation of left to higher powers for explanation.


As David Deutsche explains, the reality is that there is no authoritative source of knowledge.

Even the best and most authoritative explanation leaves room for misconceptions and needs to be updated as new facts emerge.

History has lessons; however, the biggest lesson is that as things evolve, you might figure something that seemed obvious earlier as a mistaken understanding of what happens.

Testability is key to establish the truth.

However, testability is difficult in so many situation that are best understood in hindsight.

History is a compass not the destination

History teaches us important lessons.

However, each situation has its own unique uncertainties’ that you need to deal with.

And hence history is only directional and doesn’t really provide you the solution.

Think about Covid, the world just stopped.

Everyone who thought they had control, lost all of it.

As things settled and new narratives emerged, everyone jumped to the conclusion that 2020-30 will be the greatest decade ever as world gets into recovery mode.

And then came inflation, Central banks and the world that had got used to throwing money at every problem realized that this time they will have to take the money away.

Again, no one knows how to deal with this.

If past 15 years are a lesson, people have forgotten how to deal with a world with high inflation.

Only Doom and Gloom

Everyone is pessimistic.

The inflation, the war, the supply chain-each problem seems unsurmountable.

However, if there is one lesson that history teaches us and has been tested again and again, it is that human ingenuity and ability to find solution has no limit.

The other lesson that history teaches us is that the only solution to “high prices is higher prices”.

Demand destruction will happen overtime.

If demand is higher and supply is low, supplies adjust overtime.

As money supply reduces, Quantitative Easing becomes Quantitative tightening, some of factors driving inflation will start normalizing.

Whether recession will come or not, whether things will get worse before they become better are unknowns.

What we know is that the cycle always turns.

What to do?

If you are an investor, The idea is not to stop investing but to look for pockets that can sustain and survive this phase.

One thing that was not in your favor in the near past is now coming to your side and that is valuation.

It is difficult to be optimistic when everyone has turned pessimistic, however that is your only hope to turn back after this passes to assess whether you are sitting on ruins or you have created an architectural marvel.

Stay the Course

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