Charles Lindbergh, the first person in the world to fly non-stop from America to France, made an excellent and highly accurate assessment of German Airforce capabilities.
His forecast that Germans possess 2400 planes has since been validated by other historians.
US intelligence later estimated Germans to possess 6000 airplanes.
However, what they overlooked was how chronic fuel shortage and other resources rendered most of this fire-power useless.
However, this forecast was enough to convince American Ambassador to UK that British were in no position to face the Germans and would surely leave.
This started his isolationist stand and efforts that went against his own President’s efforts to keep America out of the war.
His career once destined towards the White House was cut-short due to this misstep on his part.
Sense-Making
Once people find a narrative/a situation/an outcome, that appeals to them, they often stop the process to dive deep and make enough sense of the situation to take the right course.
Take Covid-19 for example, when covid arrived, there was no playbook for investors.
Initially everyone panicked and markets sold-off big.
They Govt’s across came with stimulus.
Then everyone saw pattern of consumption which was different from normal.
WFH was new way of working.
Stay at home and organizing your life around it was different.
This created possibilities for new type of consumption patterns and providers.
Covid phase- 1, 2, 3 and for some 4 & 5 made people forget what the old normal was.
There was stimulus money and comfort of home that created new needs.
Demand started to flow.
As there was money homes and cars, when car supply fell short, used cars, everything started flying off the shelf.
People paid any price that was quoted.
This cause higher demand.
Supply started to fall short as key manufacturing centers were in grip of covid.
These manufacturing centers in Asia developed to address over decades to increase efficiency, lower costs.
With supply chain out of control, high demand, commodities went up.
Price pressures started to build.
Lots of people decided to just stop working leading to labor shortage that led to higher wages.
The 2nd order effect of wage inflation caused an inflation spiral which initially got discounted.
This led to the inflation cancer growing in the body.
And then the war came.
20/20
Hindsight is perfect for all of us.
However how many of us understood the issues and tried to make sense.
Very few or maybe none.
Everyone thought covid has created another bull run that will last a decade.
Then the stocks crashed.
Everyone who started investing in the last 2 years and thought s/he were a genius was grappling for answers.
Now, you see how sense-making is difficult but necessary.
There are no perfect answers.
The above write-up is also hindsight.
However, if there is one answer from the whole experience, it is to stop, step back and instead of being swayed try to think rationally and in scenarios.
Whether covid-19 memories remain with you or not, the lessons are invaluable for life and I hope this one particular lesson you can carry with you for every future crisis.
Thanks for Reading
Irreverentinvestor.com 