Evidence and its Story

Even as showrooms in Europe prepared for the arrival of 2014 vehicles, authorities in France sparked controversy with a drastic action: blocking the registration — effectively shutting down sales — of some popular new Mercedes-Benz cars, including the A-Class, B-Class, CLA and SL models.

The French environment ministry ordered the ban in response to the German carmaker’s defiance of a European Union regulation on the refrigerants permitted in automotive air-conditioning systems, and the ministry says that it won’t back down until Daimler, the parent of Mercedes, complies. 

However, subsequent Independent testing by Germany’s Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt (Federal Motor Transport Authority) found that there is “no sufficient evidence of a serious risk” as defined by the Product Safety Act (ProdSG) related to the use of the low global warming potential (GWP) refrigerant R-1234yf.

The ban led to loss of 60% of its sales were affected in France due to the ban.

Value of Evidence

Evidence based decision aim for quantification in terms of risk or cost benefit to optimize one among several alternative courses.

Often this can lead to over-simplification of the available perceptions and can lead to other alternative legitimate stakeholders.

This can generate controversies instead of resolving them.

The attempt instead of being confirmatory, should be to refute frames that violate feasibility, viability and desirability.

Challenge of telling a Story

All of us tell stories about ourselves. Stories define us. To know someone well is to know her story—the experiences that have shaped her, the trials and turning points that have tested her. When we want someone to know us, we share stories of our childhoods, our families, our school years, our first loves, the development of our political views, and so on.

Telling a compelling story inspires belief in our motives, character, and capacity to reach the goals we’ve set.

Evidence to support not to make up Story

Let’s be clear: In urging the use of effective narrative, we’re not opening the door to tall tales. By “story” we don’t mean “something made up to make a bad situation look good.” Rather, we’re talking about accounts that are deeply true and so engaging that listeners feel they have a stake in our success. 

Narratives, numbers, outcomes that we share to support our story are engines of taking it forward.

However, because they can be so compelling, it is easier to add flimsy evidence to support the story which can have disastrous consequences.

What to Believe?

Often the story well told and supported by evidence can seem very compelling.

Our idea as listeners or those who have to take a call to action is to test and not just believe.

X is doing so and X is expert so lets’ follow and do it.

Numbers look compelling and so I should go ahead.

Easy peasy, however for X this might be an insignificant part of their overall game s even if it goes wrong their impact might be too small, maybe they have a side deal or right we are not aware.

Numbers seem compelling, however what is the quality of the numbers.

The point I am trying to bring home is, the decision has to be based on right reasons.

Would I take this decision if X was not involved with the deal?

Would I take this decision even if numbers had been pushed by excessive spending or inter-party transactions?

What is my right reason to take this decision?

Unless, that’s in place, think twice.

Thanks for reading

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s